Taming the Hype Cycle: meeting spiralling expectations, controlling your costs

The pace of change in our industry is breathtaking. New learning technologies abound, bringing with them exciting possibility and commercial opportunity. But they also raise questions: which of them will prove themselves? Which are worth the time and investment it takes to make them part of what you do, and which will fail to live up to the hype? And in the meantime, how should you keep your strategic focus, and control your costs?

Understanding the Hype Cycle

In a field of bright ideas and shifting technologies, it can be impossible to tell the ones that count, from the ones that can’t. Even when a technology is destined for great things, expectations become overinflated, and our understanding of how best to make use of it is lacking. Only with time do we come to understand its true value and rightful place. The clever folk at Gartner have modeled this principle, and they call it the Hype Cycle.

Some technologies will fail somewhere along this path, reaching that Peak of Inflated Expectations but never quite making it to the Plateau of Productivity. But Gartner suggests that all significant technology makes this journey. The precise shape of the cycle might vary a little for each technology, but the passage through these five phases will be the same.

A year ago, for instance, Gartner placed the Experience API on its way up the Peak of Inflated Expectations; learning analytics at the peak; gamification entering the Trough of Disillusionment; and e-textbooks climbing the slope to productivity. The University of Minnesota has done more work on this, and has plotted all new educational technology on what they call the Hype Cycle for Education.

Reading the Hype Cycle, and choosing the time to invest

The point of all this is simple: it takes all technology time to prove itself, and even more time to mature. In the meantime, solutions providers, publishers and institutions have to decide whether and when to invest. Adopt early, and they risk wasting time and money. Adopt too late, and they miss an opportunity to stand out from the pack.

But it doesn’t need to be that way.

In our 20 years in educational technology, we have seen cycle after cycle. We have witnessed the empty hype of passing fads, and the impact of true, seismic disruptions. Throughout, our aim has been to shield our clients from cost and risk, and the fact that so many have stayed with us for more than a decade shows that we have the formula right. So what is our secret?

An holistic view of technology: platforms that evolve

At Avallain, we always have an eye on emerging technology, using our didactical and technical experience to sift out those that are more hype than substance. When we think one looks interesting, we approach it holistically, as part of our suite of technologies that deliver learning. We build the new capability into our existing architecture: Avallain Author for content innovations, Avallain Unity for learning management. And because we build flexibly, with an entirely object-oriented approach, such integrations are efficient: on average our customers have a first response to the new technology within just three months.

Once adopted, the new technology benefits from the stability of our mature platforms, and from the genuine learning context that they provide. Meanwhile our clients are able to experiment with the new capability early, and at a fraction of the cost of implementing it alone. Because they can simply switch the capability on, they are free to introduce it to their products without any of the risk of rollout, or move more slowly without the risk of being left behind.

Managing disruptive change into productivity

As the technology journeys to maturity, we are watching. Our review processes enable us to explore how the innovation contributes to learning, and our clients quickly benefit from our refinements and emerging best practice. But this work is never a distraction. We continue to work holistically, with the complete suite of learning innovations that make up our platforms, using each technology for what it does best. We don’t over-invest in one innovation, or present it as a panacea, and so we avoid expensive reversals down the line.

And when the new technology is down that line, at the Plateau of Productivity, we are not content just to maintain it. Like the platform as a whole, it receives regular enhancement, so that it continues to be responsive to changing demands, and to earn its place in the Avallain ecosystem.

In this way, Avallain makes full use of each phase of the Hype Cycle. No emergent technology passes us by, and instead of the hype ruling commercial decisions, it is absorbed and controlled. Fashionable technology is given its place, and key new educational technologies are managed into productivity.

And our clients? They know that the best of new technology is always in the pipeline, and that the disruptions of the future will never break the bank.

Learning without bounds? Our experience with the Experience API

Five years ago a revolution began in our industry. The SCORM standard became yesterday’s news, and something else stole the limelight: Experience API, otherwise known as TinCan API, or xAPI. It promised great things: a simple, flexible specification that connects the dots between a person’s or group’s learning experiences, wherever they happen, online or offline.

Avallain immediately saw the potential. We got involved early, and made it part of our own research and development. So what has been our experience of Experience API? Does it do what it says on the TinCan, or is it all technological hype?

What is Experience API?

Experience API is an open source specification established by Advanced Distributed Learning (ADL), the people who oversee SCORM. Effectively, it defines a common language between any environments in which a person or group might gather experience or learn. That includes less obvious ones like offline learning, social learning, virtual worlds and gaming. The specification is not bound by hardware, software or any kind of context. It takes up where SCORM left off, capturing our more modern experience of technology: one that is blended, mobile and complex.

Think, for example, of a teacher who wants to use a learning app to illustrate a point to their class. It is not part of the school LMS, but it is relevant and useful, and the learning outcomes provide a helpful measure of progress, too. With the Experience API at work, students should be able to use the app and have their achievements captured in the LMS. They could collaborate over it on a social platform, and have that interaction captured, too. Then, when the class next meets to discuss and interact about their experiences, the outcomes of that offline discussion can be added to the record. None of the learning is lost – not for the learner, nor for the teacher.

How does it work?

This is the elegant part. Experience API uses the same form of language that we have always used to describe and record our experiences:

actor + verb + object

Or to put it simply:

I        did        this

When you think about it, all of our actions and achievements can be distilled into a statement that takes this form:

actor      verb       object

she       visited          ?

he         scored          ?

Dave     viewed        ?

they      mastered    ?

This is the basis of Experience API: actions and achievements captured in very simple statements. When those statements need to be recorded, they are sent and held securely in a repository called a Learning Record Store (LRS). LRSs can be inside a Learning Management System or they can stand alone, but two things are common to them all: the language they use and the fact that they are able to communicate with other LRSs.

In these simple ways, Experience API promises to create a new, free and meaningful dialogue between the different places in which we learn. Nothing of our learning journey should be lost, and with modern analytics, there could be much to gain. This greater insight into the full spread of our learning experiences could tell us things like how and where we learn best, our weaknesses and how they are changing, our emerging interests, blind spots and aptitudes, as well as what content works best in which context.

So, what do we think of Experience API?

We have always seen the potential. We engaged early and developed our own LRS. We made sure that content generated in Avallain Author supports the standard. We know that Experience API is taking the industry in the right direction, towards the joined-up journey that learning should be.

But it is not a panacea. So far, we have a grammar for this new common language, but not the vocabulary. It will only work to full effect once we are all using standard actors, verbs and objects. Neither is compliance with the specification an end in itself, it is a beginning. Two systems may both be compliant, but that does not make their communication meaningful, or guarantee their combined performance. And if an LRS is always part of a larger, interconnected architecture, where should the overarching analysis of attainment and behaviours take place, and using what tools? In other words, most of the creative and technical challenges remain, even if the possibilities just got more interesting.

Diverse learning: the future beyond SCORM

Experience API offers us a way to leave behind some of the limitations of SCORM, and embrace a more diverse learning experience: one that is digital, mobile, recreational, social, offline, lifelong. That is as it should be, and we will do all we can to work with the specification, and to help it mature. But it must not become a distraction from the things that underpin a great digital learning experience: inspirational content, creative collaboration, robust pedagogy and exceptional design.

That is what Avallain is here for: to deliver for its clients these things that truly drive learning, and along the way, make best use of new technologies like Experience API.

Technology that fights exclusion: 4 projects, 4 countries, and literacy for half a million adults.

Today is International Literacy Day, instituted by UNESCO to highlight the importance of literacy to individuals and communities. In the fifty years since the day it was first celebrated, UNESCO has reported real improvements in literacy, and last year estimated the global rate to be 86.3%. But this statistic belies the exclusion and inequality experienced in some parts of the world and some sections of society. In sub-Saharan Africa, UNESCO estimates the literacy rate to be only 64.0%, and everywhere, men are still far more likely to achieve literacy than women. For those of us working in education, the literacy challenge remains very real, and so today we thought we should look at the role of educational technology in this crucial field, through the prism of our own work.

In its recent report Harnessing the Potential of ICTs, UNESCO itself points to “valuable examples of how ICTs can be used creatively and innovatively”1 in adult literacy. No fewer than four of the twenty-six projects in the report involve Avallain technology and we will focus upon these to show the challenge, our response, and the outcome. As you will see, each project involves content generated by the programme’s own staff in Avallain Author, which was then delivered to learners on the Avallain Unity platform.

KENYA: community empowerment, literacy and the environment

Challenges: only 75% of children in Kenya graduate from grade 4, of whom around 70% are able to read. Almost two-thirds (61%) of all illiterate adults are women. The society faces significant environmental threats, for which its communities are ill-prepared, partly due to the education gap. The country’s limited infrastructure and electricity supply act as a barrier to the delivery of ICT-based education.

Response: in 2009, Avallain partnered with CORDIO, an organization providing community training with a focus on literacy and the environment. Avallain Author enabled CORDIO’s field workers to create simulations based on real-life community issues and challenges. Working offline on “100 dollar” laptops, which have a long battery life, learners might be asked to fill in forms, complete activities and solve problems, all in support of a practical goal. True to community tradition, learners do not work alone but in groups, supported by facilitators who encourage group discussion and collaboration. All of these activities promote environmental awareness, while improving literacy, numeracy, language and ICT skills.

Outcomes: according to the UNESCO report, the programme has delivered marked benefits, particularly for women. Previously illiterate women are now able to read and write basic sentences and use ICT, and their numeracy and language skills have improved. In these ways the programme has also enhanced the employability of participants, while improving the community’s internal communications, and engagement with wider society.

GERMANY: “Ich Will Lernen” – personalized, lifelong learning for all

Challenges: Despite Germany’s impressive educational record, 9% of students are unable to complete their studies. Because of this, in 2004 an estimated 4 million young people and adults were functionally illiterate. Stigma and family commitments make re-entry into formal education extremely difficult.

Response: The German Adult Education Association (GAEA) launched the “Ich Will Lernen” (“I want to Learn”) programme, to deliver lifelong basic and secondary education via the Internet. The resulting free online portal offers youths and adults daily learning packages in the subjects of German, Math and English, selected from more than 31,000 activities authored in Avallain Author. The learning environment, built on Avallain Unity, delivers flexible, self-regulated courses at 16 learning levels. Students may choose from online-only learning with online facilitators, or courses based at one of around 1,000 adult education centres across Germany. The programme benefits from a rigorous process of continuous review, driven by facilitators and learners, which keeps it fresh and responsive in a rapidly changing digital and social landscape.

Outcomes: Encouraged by the portal’s anonymity and personalized learning experience, approximately 500,000 learners have used it to develop their skills since 2004. The programme continues to build for the future, and has trained hundreds of trainers and facilitators. In addition, more than 1,400 teachers across Germany continue to use it in their courses. It has won three prestigious awards for its work: the Comenius medal, the European e-Learning Award, and the national Digita.

IRELAND: fighting the stigma of adult learning, with WriteOn

Challenges: Despite a period of investment lasting almost 20 years, a recently released OECD survey of adult skills suggests that 4.3% of Irish adults are below level 1 proficiency in literacy, and 13.2% are only at level 1. The stigma of learning as an adult, and a lack of faith in formal education, both play a large part in excluding potential learners from the education system.

Response: In 2008, the National Adult Literacy Agency (NALA) launched an online distance learning initiative called WriteOn. NALA’s team of educators used Avallain Author to develop the content for the portal, which launched in just 5 months. The learning environment, delivered on Avallain Unity, first assesses the student’s level of ability, and then supports them with structured online activities, digital workbooks and online one-to-one tutoring to proficiency levels 2 and 3. The workbooks and courses employ practical, real-world scenarios to ensure that learners are able to apply their skills. They may also pursue topics of particular interest to drive their learning, rather than being confined to a single path. Students are encouraged to work online only, or to use WriteOn as a blended programme, supported by one of 180 learning centres across Ireland. Each year, the service benefits from three rounds of internal and external review, ensuring that it remains responsive and current.

Outcomes: since its inception, more than 32,000 students have enrolled, and 2,500 of those have gone on to obtain 14,500 certificates at literacy levels 2 and 3. UNESCO reports that WriteOn has achieved “nationwide recognition” and highlights its “highly personalized approach” allowing learners to learn in a way that suits their lifestyles. The report concludes that WriteOn has done much to overcome the “stigmatized image” of literacy learning and the “negative associations” of formal education.

TURKEY: offering a second chance at literacy and numeracy

Challenges: In Turkey the formal education system struggles with extremely high school absence rates, averaging at 73 days per student, per year. All too many students fail to complete their education, and in 2012, there were 3.8 million adults who had never completed primary education. 2.8 million of them could not read or write, and 80% of those were women.

Response: in 2011, the Mother Child Education Foundation approached Avallain to help them develop the “Web-based Literacy Programme” (WBLP), a free online portal aimed at boosting literacy and numeracy skills among adults. Its 5,500 activities, created in Avallain Author, deliver 360 hours of instruction: the entire content of the equivalent face-to-face adult literacy programme. WBLP prepares students for two levels of literacy exams, which act as a gateway back into formal education. The programme also responds to the 96% of students surveyed who expressed a desire to improve their ICT skills. The Avallain Unity platform provides a structured and easy-to-use learning experience, supported by intuitive navigation and tools such as text-to-speech. With the help of online tutors, 75% of students learn entirely online, overcoming factors such as family obligations or distance, which might otherwise exclude them from education. The programme also acts as a blended solution, working with face-to-face literacy programmes in adult education centres.

Outcomes: By November 2013, WBLP had 6,800 students, of whom 75% were women. 52% of all learners had never gone to school. A pilot study in 2012 showed that WBLP students were able to develop their ICT skills while achieving the same literacy and numeracy proficiencies as those in less accessible, more costly face-to-face classes. Many WBLP students have taken the second level literacy exam, re-opening their access to formal education.

Re-opening an avenue to education and self-improvement

It is heartening to reflect on these achievements in the field of adult literacy, but we know that there is much more to be done. These and other projects tell us that educational technology, when done well, provides unique opportunities to overcome the stigma and exclusion that so often surrounds adult learning. It offers the flexibility to fit with the busy, responsible lives of adults, wherever they are, and for many, it re-opens an avenue to education and self-improvement.

Our engagement in Adult Literacy began in 2004, and this year we are deepening our commitment by establishing the Avallain Foundation.

1Ulrike Hanemann, Introduction, Harnessing the Potential of ICTs: Literacy and Numeracy Programmes Using Radio, TV, Mobile Phones, Tablets and Computers

True differentiated learning for primary schools, with Avallain and Westermann.

Avallain has joined forces with Westermann, one of the leading publishers of educational media in Germany, to develop a primary math learning environment that supports truly differentiated learning, allowing teachers to respond to the needs of individuals.

Denken und Rechnen (“Thinking and Numeracy”) is a new-generation learning platform with the capacity to offer unique learning paths to individuals or groups in a class. Teachers are offered insights into learner progress, competence and skills, along with the tools to intervene where necessary to offer additional support or guidance. The environment enables them to organize and assign digital resources to respond to specific weaknesses – or to build on strengths – while managing the overall progress of the class. For students, Denken und Rechnen offers enhanced, interactive versions of the full content of the textbook, with tips, instant feedback and information about progress and developing skills. The experience is optimized for tablets as well as PCs, to facilitate learning at home as well as in class.

Developed on the Avallain Unity platform, with content delivered by Avallain Author,Denken und Rechnen was produced in less than a year, benefitting from the flexibility and integration of the two solutions. With highly granular content, authored digitally and delivered seamlessly to the learning environment, Denken und Rechnen offers tight integration between print and digital editions to support teachers, however they wish to teach.

Dr. Isabel Schneider, Group Leader Elementary School Foreign Languages, Digital Media at the Westermann Group, said:

Denken und Rechnen responds directly to the challenges and opportunities faced by today’s teachers. Through the flexibility of the environment, we hope to have created an experience that enriches and supports teaching, and that enhances learning through a more diverse and sophisticated classroom.

Ignatz Heinz, MD of Avallain AG, commented:

We are delighted to collaborate with Westermann to offer a meaningful, flexible response to the current reality in schools. We believe that Denken und Rechnen provides true support for differentiated learning, by giving teachers the insights and tools they need. As ever, we are very pleased to see Avallain Unity and Avallain Author responding effectively to specific market and user needs, and we look forward to working with Westermann in other content and subject areas.

Based in Braunschweig, the Westermann Group is one of the significant providers of educational media in Germany. Operating in its three core areas of publishing, printing and services, the group provides comprehensive media solutions in the fields of education and knowledge, and publishes educational materials for all school types and subjects across all federal states.